Sequential Extensions of Causal and Evidential Decision Theory
نویسندگان
چکیده
Moving beyond the dualistic view in AI where agent and environment are separated incurs new challenges for decision making, as calculation of expected utility is no longer straightforward. The non-dualistic decision theory literature is split between causal decision theory and evidential decision theory. We extend these decision algorithms to the sequential setting where the agent alternates between taking actions and observing their consequences. We find that evidential decision theory has two natural extensions while causal decision theory only has one.
منابع مشابه
Causal Models of Decision Making: Choice as Intervention
Causal considerations must be relevant to making decisions. Nevertheless, traditional decision theories like evidential expected utility theory do not have the means to distinguish causal from merely evidential relations. As a result, they fail to distinguish cases where a choice influences consequences from cases where a choice does not affect consequences even though they are correlated. Ther...
متن کاملTimeless Decision Theory
Disputes between evidential decision theory and causal decision theory have continued for decades, and many theorists state dissatisfaction with both alternatives. Timeless decision theory (TDT) is an extension of causal decision networks that compactly represents uncertainty about correlated computational processes and represents the decisionmaker as such a process. This simple extension enabl...
متن کاملCausation, Chance and the Rational Significance of Supernatural Evidence
In ‘A Subjectivist’s Guide to Objective Chance,’ David Lewis says that he is “led to wonder whether anyone but a subjectivist is in a position to understand objective chance.” The present paper aims to motivate this same Lewisean attitude, and a similar degree of modest subjectivism, with respect to objective causation. The paper begins with Newcomb problems, which turn on an apparent tension b...
متن کاملLost memories and useless coins: revisiting the absentminded driver
The puzzle of the absentminded driver combines an unstable decision problem with a version of the Sleeping Beauty problem. Its analysis depends on the choice between “halfing” and “thirding” as well as that between “evidential” and “causal” decision theory. I show that all four combinations lead to interestingly different solutions, and draw some general lessons about the formulation of causal ...
متن کاملEvidentials and Epistemic Modal in Korean: Evidence from Their Intractions
Recently J. Lee (2010) made the distinction clear about the evidential –te in Korean between inferential evidential reading with PAST and direct evidential reading with PRES in tense. She offers a modal analysis of this typologically interesting evidential. I argue here that this evidential category, though with some modal force, must be distinguished from an epistemic modal category of conject...
متن کاملذخیره در منابع من
با ذخیره ی این منبع در منابع من، دسترسی به آن را برای استفاده های بعدی آسان تر کنید
عنوان ژورنال:
دوره شماره
صفحات -
تاریخ انتشار 2015